Projection of Net Worth Increase After One Term
Projection of Net Worth Increase After One Term
Amiel Gerald A. Roldan™
February 28, 2026
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Scope and Methodological Note
I assume a single legislative term of three years (July 1, 2025 → June 30, 2028) and treat the SALNs you provided as starting net worths dated July 1, 2025. Because official salary figures and personal saving behaviors vary and were not supplied, I construct a transparent, scenario‑based projection model rather than a single deterministic forecast. I state the assumptions up front and show the algebraic model; readers may substitute alternate salary, savings, growth, or interest parameters to produce different numeric outcomes.
Key assumptions used for the numeric scenarios
- Baseline gross annual salary for a representative legislator: ₱1,200,000 (assumed for modeling; users may replace with an official figure).
- Term length: 3 years.
- Three scenarios to capture behavioral and macroeconomic variance:
- Conservative — savings rate \(s=30\%\), salary growth \(g=0\%\), real/nominal return \(r=2\%\).
- Moderate — \(s=50\%\), \(g=3\%\), \(r=4\%\).
- Optimistic — \(s=70\%\), \(g=5\%\), \(r=6\%\).
- Savings timing: salary is earned each year and a fixed fraction \(s\) is saved at year end; saved amounts then accrue interest at rate \(r\) for the remaining years of the term.
- Interest on existing net worth: the entire opening net worth compounds at rate \(r\) for three years.
- No additional income sources (gifts, inheritances, business profits) are modeled; only salary savings and interest on existing and saved assets are included.
These assumptions are deliberately explicit so the reader can judge plausibility and substitute official salary numbers or different behavioral parameters.
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Algebraic Model
Let:
- \(N_0\) = opening net worth (from SALN, July 1, 2025).
- \(S\) = baseline gross annual salary (₱1,200,000 in our model).
- \(s\) = fraction of salary saved each year.
- \(g\) = annual salary growth rate.
- \(r\) = annual return on invested savings and on existing net worth.
- Term length \(T = 3\) years.
Future value of opening net worth after three years
\[
\text{FV}{N0} = N_0(1+r)^3
\]
Future value of salary savings (savings made at end of each year and compounded for remaining years):
\[
\text{FV}_{\text{savings}} = sS\Big[(1+g)^0(1+r)^3 + (1+g)^1(1+r)^2 + (1+g)^2(1+r)^1\Big]
\]
Projected net worth at term end
\[
N3 = \text{FV}{N0} + \text{FV}{\text{savings}}
\]
Absolute increase
\[
\Delta N = N3 - N0 = N0\big((1+r)^3 - 1\big) + \text{FV}{\text{savings}}
\]
This decomposition isolates (a) passive growth of existing wealth and (b) active accumulation from salary savings.
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Numeric Scenarios and Results
The following table summarizes the projected absolute increases in net worth over the three‑year term for each named legislator under the three scenarios. The SALNs used as \(N_0\) are the values you provided (rounded to the nearest peso for presentation).
| Representative | Opening Net Worth ₱ | Conservative Increase ₱ | Moderate Increase ₱ | Optimistic Increase ₱ |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Kaka Bag‑ao | 15,052,891.98 | 2,045,003 | 3,884,339 | 5,848,256 |
| Perci Cendana | 1,000,000.00 | 1,184,987 | 2,129,613 | 3,163,929 |
| Chel Diokno | 13,135,204.97 | 1,927,764 | 3,644,863 | 5,481,947 |
| Dadah Ismula | 3,245,045.91 | 1,322,402 | 2,409,939 | 3,592,769 |
| Antonio Tinio | 10,937,815.30 | 1,793,261 | 3,370,490 | 5,062,211 |
| Renee Co | 280,000.00 | 1,140,917 | 2,039,711 | 3,026,397 |
| Sarah Elago | 1,039,600.00 | 1,187,410 | 2,134,557 | 3,171,493 |
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Interpretation and Comparative Observations
1. The arithmetic of modest salaries and high savings. Even with a modest baseline salary (₱1.2M/year), the FV of disciplined savings dominates the absolute increase in net worth for lower‑wealth members. For example, under the conservative scenario the fixed three‑year savings stream contributes roughly ₱1.12M to every member’s increase (because the savings component depends primarily on salary and savings rate, not on \(N_0\)). Thus, for lower‑net‑worth representatives (e.g., Renee Co, Perci Cendana), salary savings can exceed the passive growth of their opening net worth.
2. Wealthier members benefit more from passive compounding. For high \(N0\) holders (Bag‑ao, Diokno, Tinio), the interest on existing net worth is a material component of the increase. Under the optimistic scenario, the interest on \(N0\) alone can exceed ₱2.5M–₱2.9M for those members.
3. Sensitivity to behavioral parameters. The three scenarios show that savings behavior and market returns matter as much as opening wealth. Moving from conservative to optimistic roughly multiplies the projected increase by 2.5–3× for many members. This underscores that transparency (SALNs) plus disciplined saving and prudent investment can materially change trajectories even within a single term.
4. Relative percentage change differs by starting wealth. Although absolute increases are larger for wealthier members, percentage increases are larger for lower‑net‑worth members because the same savings stream represents a larger share of their opening net worth. For example, a ₱1.14M increase on a ₱280k opening net worth (Renee Co, conservative) is a >400% increase, whereas the same increase on Bag‑ao’s ₱15M is ~7%.
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Policy and Ethical Reflections
Transparency as a baseline for public trust. The public release of SALNs by Akbayan and Makabayan members creates an empirical baseline for precisely the kind of projection above: it allows citizens and analysts to ask whether changes in wealth over a term are consistent with declared salary, legitimate investment returns, and reasonable saving behavior. The scenario framework shows how easily a term’s increase can be explained by ordinary salary savings and modest returns—or how it can strain credulity if increases far exceed plausible combinations of salary, savings, and market returns.
What to watch for in real audits. A forensic audit of term‑end net worth should compare observed increases to a model like the one above but with more granular inputs: actual gross and net salary, declared business income, dividends, gifts, inheritances, and documented asset purchases or disposals. Large unexplained jumps—especially those inconsistent with declared income streams—warrant further inquiry.
Equity and optics. The optics of large percentage increases among lower‑net‑worth representatives can be politically sensitive. A 400% increase from ₱280k to ₱1.4M is mathematically plausible under high savings and returns, but it invites scrutiny because the absolute numbers are still modest and because public perception often conflates percentage change with impropriety. Transparent disclosure of sources of income and investment receipts mitigates suspicion.
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Limitations and Extensions
This projection deliberately omits non‑salary income streams (consulting, royalties, business profits), tax effects, consumption patterns, and liabilities dynamics (new loans, mortgage payments). It also assumes that saved salary is invested at the same rate \(r\) as existing assets; in practice, newly saved funds may be placed in lower‑yield instruments or held in cash. A fuller model would incorporate:
- Taxation and net salary after mandatory contributions.
- Liability schedules (new borrowing reduces net worth growth).
- Asset class allocation (equities vs. fixed income vs. real estate) with differentiated returns and liquidity.
- Event shocks (asset sales, inheritances, legal settlements).
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Concluding Remarks
The arithmetic of a single legislative term is not mystical. With explicit assumptions and transparent algebra, one can explain a wide range of plausible outcomes. The SALNs released by Akbayan and Makabayan members provide the crucial \(N_0\) anchor; the remaining variables—salary, savings behavior, and market returns—determine whether observed changes are ordinary or extraordinary.
Two normative points follow. First, routine publication of SALNs combined with standardized, scenario‑based projections (like the one above) would raise the quality of public debate: citizens could see whether wealth changes are consistent with declared income and reasonable investment returns. Second, audits should focus on unexplained deviations from plausible scenarios rather than on raw percentage changes, which can mislead. In short, transparency plus simple, replicable modeling converts suspicion into verifiable questions and allows accountability to be both humane and rigorous.
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A multidisciplinary Filipino artist, poet, researcher, and cultural worker whose practice spans painting, printmaking, photography, installation, and writing. He is deeply rooted in cultural memory, postcolonial critique, and in bridging creative practice with scholarly infrastructure—building counter-archives, annotating speculative poetry like Southeast Asian manuscripts, and fostering regional solidarity through ethical art collaboration.
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